Last month, we reported on a stunning development: the new car supply had plummeted, with a net negative loss in total of over 150,000 units, signaling a potential supply crunch. The big question then was whether this was a one-time blip or the start of a new trend. Today, with the latest inventory data from Cox Automotive, we have more clarity.
The market has entered a new phase of strategic recalibration. The latest numbers show new vehicle inventory cautiously grew, while the used vehicle market, especially for affordable cars, remains incredibly tight. This isn’t chaos; it’s a deliberate adjustment by the entire industry in response to the “Great Squeeze.“
Let’s break down the month-over-month data.
Based in Daytona Beach, Florida, Josh Logan provides data-driven analysis from the unique perspective of a seasoned automotive professional. His goal is to empower consumers with insider knowledge to navigate the complexities of the modern car market.
Inventory At a Glance
August vs. July 2025
| Metric | Current (End of Aug) | vs. Previous Month (End of July) | Monthly Change | Analyst Outlook |
| Total New Vehicle Inventory | 2.76 Million | 2.68 Million | ▲ 3.0% | Optimizing |
| Total Used Vehicle Inventory | 2.21 Million | 2.16 Million | ▲ 2.3% | Shortage |
| Average New Vehicle Listing Price | $48,697 | $48,480 | ▲ 0.4% | Increasing |
| Average Used Vehicle Listing Price | $25,393 | $25,517 | ▼ 0.5% | Stabilizing |
| New Vehicle Days’ Supply | 77 Days | 73 Days | ▲ 5.5% | Recovering |
| Used Vehicle Days’ Supply | 43 Days | 43 Days | ▬ 0.0% | Tightened |
| Used <$15k Days’ Supply | 29 Days | 31 Days | ▼ 6.5% | Critical |
| Average Used Mileage | 72,557 | 72,691 | ▼ 0.2% | High |
Source: Cox Automotive & vAuto Live Market View Data. July data from our previous reporting.
The New Market Recalibration
After last month’s shocking drop, the new vehicle market is showing signs of stabilizing, but at a new normal. Inventory rose to 2.76 million units, and the days’ supply climbed to 77 days. This indicates that production and shipments are now slightly outpacing the retail sales rate. The freefall is over, but automakers are being incredibly disciplined. This isn’t a return to a glut; it’s a carefully managed replenishment strategy designed to keep supply tight enough to maintain high prices and avoid costly incentives.
The Used Market Paradox
While the overall used vehicle supply held stable at a lean 43 days’ supply, the real crisis at the bottom of the market has worsened. The supply of cars priced under $15,000 fell again to a critical 29 days. This is a flashing red light for affordability. The data proves that as consumers get squeezed by high new car prices and rising interest rates, they are flooding the affordable used market, snapping up the cheapest cars almost the moment they become available.
A Year of Two Halve
The Cox Automotive report provides the “smoking gun” that explains this new discipline. The story of 2025 inventory is a tale of two distinct halves:
- The First Half (Jan-May): Inventory was depleted by what the report calls an “initial rush on sales amid widespread media coverage of potential tariff-induced price hikes.” Consumers, fearing higher prices, bought everything they could, creating the supply crunch we analyzed.
- The Second Half (May-Present): The market has shifted to a “steady state.” Automakers are now carefully managing their replenishment, showing what the report calls “highly disciplined” behavior with models directly impacted by tariffs and focusing production only on their most successful, profitable vehicles.
This is the “Great Squeeze” in action. Having been burned by high costs, automakers are now refusing to build unprofitable vehicles, even if it means having less inventory overall.
The Brand-Level Strategy in Action
The report gives us a clear look at this new discipline at the brand level.
- The Disciplined: Brands like Toyota, Honda, and Kia are praised for “holding production in balance with demand.” Chevrolet and Mazda are also showing “strong inventory discipline.”
- The Strategic Retreat: At Stellantis, the report notes that niche brands like Fiat and Alfa Romeo are shrinking inventory. The same is true for low-volume, import-focused brands like MINI, Infiniti, and Jaguar.
This isn’t a sign of failure; it’s a sign of a calculated business strategy. Automakers are cutting their losses on less profitable models to reallocate resources toward what sells and what makes money: trucks, SUVs, and their EV transition.
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What This Means For You
This month-over-month data gives us the clearest picture yet of the new reality.
- For the New Car Buyer: The market is stabilizing. While you may see slightly more selection on the lots, don’t expect a return to massive discounts. The new discipline from automakers means they will keep supply tight to protect their profits. The average new vehicle listing price is already up to $48,697.
- For the Used Car Buyer: The pressure is intensifying. The most affordable segment of the market is evaporating, with the days’ supply for sub-$15k cars now at a critical low. If you are shopping in this price range, you must be prepared to act decisively.
The market is smarter and more strategic than ever. The automakers are adapting to the Great Squeeze, and this new data shows exactly how they are doing it.
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